paidiev (paidiev) wrote,

Статья не по нашенски.

Приятели из США решили разместить мою статью в тамошних журналах. Ничего не вышло. так я её в этом журнале размещу.

The USA is opposed to any union between the European Union, China, and the countries of Islam. Because of their relative weakness these opponents of the USA have chosen to operate stealthily and need the involvement of Russia to further their cause. However, President Putin has quite publicly chosen to support the USA and in doing so has drawn upon Russia the anger of these countries. The USA has not considered the consequences of this victimization of Russia and how it will affect both of their countries and their financial interests.
The economy of the USA is presently experiencing serious difficulties. These problems have lead to falling of trust in American securities and depreciation of dollar in relation to gold, oil and the other world currencies. The USA needs significant capital to fix the falling dollar and the low interest rate and the current situation of decreased earnings discourages foreign investment. The only remaining options to produce the requisite capital are increased debt or the exportation of political instability to make the USA appear to be a safe harbor for financial capital.
The reality is that the debt economy of the USA can fail. The key requisite for its rescue and the re-structuring of its debt pyramid is the preservation of dollar as the world reserve currency. And this preservation will rely heavily upon the basis of a "high earnings" financial sector in the USA. Debts of the USA are huge, but with foreign investment they will be paid by others, and these involuntary assistants are guaranteed to drive their own economies into depression for long years, leading their own populations through a process of an impoverishment.
As a result of the formation of the European Union, there is a competition between the dollar and the euro to be the world reserve currency. This competition could have been a gradual succession of events to reach the conclusion however the current lack of confidence in the dollar has accelerated this conflict. It is not possible to sustain a coexistence of several competing reserve currencies. In the world of the global market only one currency can hold that honor.\
Presently, the dollar valuation on the world market is determined by the following three comparisons: \par
Dollar to pound\
Dollar to gold\
Dollar to euro\
The major financial market managers find themselves in a constant threat of overturning this valuation pyramid during the most improper moment - the moment of crisis. This fragile situation creates opportunities for independent market players to blackmail the owners of system and receive huge profits. Any imbalance between the valuation pairs can exist only within local markets and only for very short periods of time. \
The grand prize in the modern world is received by the country that issues the world reserve currency. It supervises the worldwide investment, banking and insurance businesses, and it controls the post-industrial markets which provide the capital for venture financing. Highly paid workplaces can exist only in the country that issues the reserve currency and its\rquote directly affiliated allies. All others receive the salary and benefits at a level of China. The winner in the struggle for the right to issue the reserve currency receives everything, EVERYTHING, in full sense of it. Granted, this is a very primitive model of the modern, extremely complex world, however, it works and it is clear.
A possible compromise to this monopolization of financial opportunity could be creation of a world government with a world central bank much like the current International Monetary Fund. However, are the benefactors of the current system in the USA willing to allow others into this club? And would they be willing to allow the replacement of dollar as the world currency? At the present time there no indications of such willingness.
Currently the economic policy in the USA is defined by the dictates of Wall Street. \par
Much of the value of the various indexes is comprised of huge sums of paper representing the intangible value of the companies of the post-industrial economy. In reality these \ldblquote assets\rdblquote may ultimately prove to be tens of billions of dollars in debts. The existence of these questionable assets may very well have provided the stimulus for the downturn of the price of gold a decade ago. Efforts to maintain a viable economy under these conditions have been achieved through what is essentially a decrease in taxes on the profits of corporations at the expense of higher deficits for the budget of the USA. \
The financial managers are faced with a situation where they need a strong economy to sustain a huge quantity of garbage paper while at the same time they want to maintain the dollar as the world reserve currency. However, these are two almost mutually exclusive problems. Lowering the dollar exchange rate will increase exports, improve profits, produce a strong economy and lower interest rates. However, it is high interest rates that encourage foreign investment, maintaining the world reserve currency status of the dollar.
Paul O'Neill directly defended a plan for a weaker dollar in favor of the national economy and its industrial giants, but it appears that stance resulted in his being forced to retire early. Now the USA\rquote s economy is guided by people who will devote their efforts towards the preservation of the dollar\rquote s role as the world\rquote s reserve currency. Depreciation of dollar goes besides their will and in the present low interest rate economy they are compelled to hasten.
In parallel there is a struggle for the control over the sources of raw materials, first of all oil. The value society places on this issue seem to me exaggerated, but passions surrounding the stable deliveries of cheap oil play the important role in political events. It is obvious that the war in Iraq helps strengthen the dollar and depreciates the euro a little, thus playing a role in fulfilling the goal of other plans.
Attitudes throughout the World
In a politically uncertain world, the fear is that there are some who may view a destabilization and subsequent transformation of Russia, once again, into the "Empire of Evil" as necessary to generate a conflict to produce hundreds of billions of dollars year. If that happens, after several years not even the ashes of Russia will remain.
The dream of German financiers is to pit the USA against a third force and on this basis to receive a place in the decision making mechanism of the USA. The more malicious the conflict, the deeper their alliance with the USA would be. As shocking as this may appear, one has only to look at the lessons of history to see that the leaders of Germany have always held the interests of the German citizens with contempt. Simply they need only to transform Russia into cannon fodder; to pit Russia against the USA through mechanisms of NATO.
The USSR and subsequently Russia has done much for the Arabian world and the counties of Islam. For these efforts they have been paid back with the most black ingratitude and treachery. The Arabic countries would also like to see a conflict between Russia and the USA for the same reasons as Germany and many others in Europe. My God! Rescue us from all these friends of Russia.
Considering these outside interests it is possible to project where they could lead. With outside pressure to force a constant state of political instability in Russia, political opportunists will find it easier to move into power. Once in power Russia will become the tool of these outside interests to unleash upon their economic competitors.
Already the Russian state has turned to a conglomerate of mafias on many levels of the economy and society itself. And the current political system is also necessary to the survival of the mafias. This system is the very definition of fascism. But while their interests may coincide, one possible version of this scenario is the disintegration of Russia into and creation several (5-7) cannibal regimes on the territory of the former USSR The only impetus necessary would be to push a succession of events in this direction. And "the Weimar syndrome" would be the best means to start the process. Nothing is really new in world history, yes? \
Whether Russia Is Capable Of Resisting This Collective Will
The present Russian oligarch groupings were created during the repartition of property. However they are essentially powerless to govern. They resort to exploiting the perversity of diverse people and the structures of organizations and habits to earn money, big money. While spending the small sums, they have grasped huge riches. Unlike western capitalist they did not create anything new but merely seized upon the work of others. This arrangement is highly resistant to change short of the painful process of being struck with a heavy cudgel. Experts in the field of hierarchical structures whisper that such organizations basically cannot change on their own.
Conditions of weak governmental authority are necessary for the existence of such organizations. Only under the conditions of a half-dead President of Russia can they exist as they presently do. In the present context the strong and popular Putin represents a potential threat to them. The government\rquote s periodic quarrels with oligarchs were not so casual, but the natural result of this situation. And should the government weaken, such conflicts will be multiplied. Only a united country with a strong and rigid authority supported by all of society will prevent anarchy in Russia and the subsequent involvement of Russia in bloody international conflicts.
There is also another sad consequence to which the domination of the mafias in Latin America and Africa testifies; the inevitability of civil wars. The fact that they have not yet begun, says only that the Soviet officials as a whole consisted of people sufficiently responsible and decent (although some may not see it) and fear of the reaction of the USA should such crisis break out in a country with huge stocks of nuclear weapons.
\b The Reality of Globalization\
There are many today who tout the benefits of globalization but on closer examination you will discover their meaning is not a world run by all of the people but rather a world ruled exclusively by elites exempt from national controls and making their decisions behind the backs of the local population. This elite class thinks and operates not as citizens of their nation with the destiny of their own people in mind. Their actions are guided only by their global, interests and their aspirations to become members of what they perceive as a prestigious international environment. For these people, globalization means first of all the exemption of elites from the system of civil consensus to break not only with national cultural tradition, but also those decisions and compromises upon which the civil world operates.
So, the final question is: is at least some part of the elite of the USA (who are not yet prepared for a reform of world finance) ready to accept any compromises with the other centers of force in this world?
Написано слишком тяжеловесно для американского читателя, хотя материал сам по себе интересный. Надо больше про медведей, водку и Наташек, тогда пойдёт (серьезно). То есть примеры там из жизни, акробатические паралели, без этого читать не будут. Да и перевод слишком академический.
Ну да, но
1. Сам я перевод сделать не могу.
2. Я понятия не имею КАК писать для их аудитории.
Так, что спасибо. что сделали. "Дарёному коню..." Но увы, не пошло.
А идеи эти в ту среду закинуть надо. Для блага нашей Родины.
Попробуйте. На авторство не претендую.
Я не обешаю, но подумаю. Плохо также я что я в этой теме ни бум-бум. Понятно, что на авторство я тем более ни в коей мере не претендую.
Я подумаю.
Да, вот что - укажите примерную целевую аудиторию, то есть в смысле какой именно журнал (ы).
На Ваше усмотррение, ибо цель: донести идеи.
Нет, я в этом, как и сказал, ничего не понимаю. Укажите мне пару желательных журналов, я почитаю КАК там пишут.
Журналы американской промышленности.
Вы меня извините, не хотелось бы никакой дидактики. Тем не менее у меня складывается впечатление что Вы и сами толком не знаете в каком именно журнале Вы бы хотели видеть свою статью. А это первый вопрос, который следует задать самому себе садясь писать. Ещё раз извините за дидактический тон.
То, что я читал в молодые годы - не годится. Советология позорная. А так сам не знаю. Могу дать список того, куда посылали, тип Золотых Орлов.
Сугубо стилистически -- Foreign Affairs (журнал CFR). В любой журнальной лавке можно найти.
Или вот:

Или Foreign Policy:
(журнал фонда Карнеги)

Но там не напечатают. В первом -- совершенно точно (это заведение "дедушки бжезинского и его внуков").
Во втором -- на 95%.

Я не представляю, чтобы "системные" журналы в США что-либо подобное печатали. У них есть своя картина мира, свои установки как нужно смотреть на вещи, какую картину мира формировать, и ничего противоречащего этим установкам они печатать не будут. Могут только либо маргиналы вроде Ларуша, либо, совершенно случайным образом, непрофильные издания.

То есть ответ на последний вопрос заглавного текста: "нет".
Элиты в США движимы своими интересами.
Они могут идти на те или иные временные альянсы если таковые наилучшим образом обеспечат их интересы.
Но зачем США или каким-либо сегментам американской элиты может быть нужен какого-либо рода компромисс с Россией, не видно.
И статья ответа на этот вопрос отчетливым образом не предлагает.
(Если такой ответ есть, он должен идти подзаголовком.)
Cергей, у меня масса печатных работ, и, повотрюсь, куда писать - важнее всего. ну то есть у нас журналов много, я намечаю примерно 3-5 опредленного уровня, пишу текст, а уж потом определяю куда сгодится. Само по себе "не возьмут" не есть гарантировано. Попробовать можно, важно определится кому ЭТО будет интересно (в смысле читаюшей журнал публики). А там уже будет видно - поправят рецензенты и т.д.
<не пошло>
И не могло пойти. Английский текст следует переписать.
Мне это не по силам. Поэтому и обрадовался. когда знакомые, зарабатывающие хлеб в США взялись сделать дайджест из нескольких моих статей с и
слабое место рассуждений: рашка НЕ СПОСОБНА противостоять США. И это видно всем кроме нас.

Поэтому никакие немцы и арабы не стремятся стколнкуть нас с США - мы просто не та весовая категория.
Противостояние это и победа. и помеха. Яма на дороге или бутылка с бензином победить не может. Победит тот. кто её использует.
А ненашенское название у статьи есть?

2. Еще не читала, но например
depression for long years - не пишут.
depression for many years to come - правильнее по смыслу
В английском я слаб. Приятели перевели. Сами там близко к экономике кусок хлеба зарабатывают. Им виднее. А название придумывает всегда редакция исходя из редакционной политики.
1)Paul O'Neill, а не Pol O'Nil Это очень важно. Такая "ошибка" может изменить мнение о Вас как об эксперте.
2)Paul O'Neill крупная фигура и его мнение интересует многих. Назовите свою статью, например, "В чем ошибся Пол О Нил?" и интерес к ней будет обеспечен.

с уважением,
Да, не перепроверил. А обвинял его в неправтоте Роберт Дорнбуш. И неправ то сам Дорнбуш.
Ну да, статья то перевод с русского, я их на русском написал.